But what if this is a new postnormal world? (It is.) A new sort of economy with a new hyperbolic logic? What if we’ve crossed over into a world we don’t have a handle on? What if we aren’t going back to the old boom/bust? What if volatility, uncertainty, complexity, and ambiguity are here to stay? What if it became impossible to apply old approaches to analyze the situation, or worse yet, analytic techniques in general couldn’t pierce the fog of this postnormal economy?
Well, one observation is that finding investment opportunities will involve abductive logic now: guessing and experimenting, instead of analytic number crunching. Maybe that what these fund managers are trying now, but they aren’t saying.
@stoweboyd This purely academic question gets asked every business cycle. It was being asked on the upside in the late 90s if you recall. In this (not very) regulated financial environment, investment managers figure out how to play new conditions which makes the answer to your question “No” +/- 20%.