But what if this is a new postnormal world? (It is.) A new sort of economy with a new hyperbolic logic? What if we’ve crossed over into a world we don’t have a handle on? What if we aren’t going back to the old boom/bust? What if volatility, uncertainty, complexity, and ambiguity are here to stay? What if it became impossible to apply old approaches to analyze the situation, or worse yet, analytic techniques in general couldn’t pierce the fog of this postnormal economy?

What if?

Well, one observation is that finding investment opportunities will involve abductive logic now: guessing and experimenting, instead of analytic number crunching. Maybe that what these fund managers are trying now, but they aren’t saying.

Rafer sez:
@stoweboyd This purely academic question gets asked every business cycle. It was being asked on the upside in the late 90s if you recall. In this (not very) regulated financial environment, investment managers figure out how to play new conditions which makes the answer to your question “No” +/- 20%. 

  1. jron reblogged this from stoweboyd
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  4. stoweboyd reblogged this from rafer and added:
    Scott Rafer riffs on my recent post, The Biggest If Of All, where I suggest that this time it might be different, this...
  5. futuristlab reblogged this from emergentfutures and added:
    Interesting read on how @StoweBoyd notes how the world may never return to normal even though fund managers are touting...
  6. rafer reblogged this from stoweboyd and added:
    Rafer sez: @stoweboyd This purely academic question gets asked every business cycle. It was being asked on
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  9. chesnimnus reblogged this from stoweboyd and added:
    Or number crunching and big data will become so pervasive that all decisions will become algorithm driven so that the...
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  11. andrewhazlett said: I see this nervous assumption that things will “return to normal” in all kinds of ways… just about all incumbent institutions (business, cultural, academic, political) share a belief/hope that the pendulum will swing back in their favor soon.