so my guess is that for things to really open up again, we need to not look for HTML5 to be merely as good as native, but rather to let us do things that are qualitatively different.
I believe where the web trumps apps, be they Instagram or AOL circa 1995, is the linking and sharing of information between specialized providers. Users put up with a ton of latency and other experience problems in order to gain the advantages of open integration and true hypertext in the early days of the web.
The same is true in this breakout from closed to open. The question is how to make users hungry enough for data mixing to deal with the inconvenience. <sigh> It’s probably time to read Innovator’s Dilemma again.